At one time I was the commissioner of an NFL Football Pool. We picked the games straight up, no points spreads. We charged $2 a week; for the first few years we had over consistent 20 participants. For various reasons participation dwindled to eight die-hard players. At which point we decided to finish the 2014 Season and not do the pool anymore.
I miss it. I can’t stand fantasy football, and even though there was negligible amount of money on the line, it allowed to me to have some sort of interest in every NFL game. Because I was in charge of sending out the weekly schedule of games and then keeping track of everyone’s picks. I got to be an expert at NFL Scheduling. I could often tell you when each team played, who was at home, on what network, and in some cases the broadcast crew without looking at my phone. I also have 5 seasons worth of prognostication data for myself and random football fans. For a couple of seasons I even kept track of notable media members who made picks during the NFL Pre-Game Shows. Turns out they’re not any better than us unwashed masses at picking football games.
Turns out if you pay even a little bit of attention you can pick the winner around 62 % of the time. Reviewing some of the old spreadsheets I found the eventual winner of the entire season only picked correctly 65% of the time over the course of five seasons; or 166 out of 256. The year I won the entire season, 2012, I picked 170 games correctly, or 67%. My average over the five seasons was 63%.
Since I need content for this website and I miss picking all 256 games that make up an NFL season. I’ve decided to publicly make my picks for each week and keep track of the results. I doubt I will spend more than 20 minutes a week doing research on making picks. That is similar to what I did in an actual football pool. If you think you’re any good feel to make your picks and send them to me and I’ll post them along with mine. If you beat me you will receive absolutely nothing. I will post the coming weekends picks, and go over the previous week’s picks every Wednesday. My goal will be to beat my best season of 170 correct picks. So, without further commentary, here are my picks for Week 1 and some commentary on my pick if it comes to me.
Carolina @ Denver: Carolina. No tactical reason I’m picking Carolina other than things usually even out in the NFL.
Green Bay @ Jacksonville: Jacksonville. Home underdogs are a good place to find surprise results. Especially on opening weekend
Buffalo @ Baltimore: Baltimore
Chicago @ Houston: Houston
Cleveland @ Philadelphia: Philadelphia
Tampa Bay @ Atlanta: Tampa Bay
Minnesota @ Tennessee: Tennessee
Cincinnati @ New York Jets: NY Jets
Oakland @ New Orleans: New Orleans
San Diego @ Kansas City: Kansas City. I’m not real high on the Chiefs this year, but San Diego is terrible and the game is at Arrowhead
Sunday Nap Time
Miami @ Seattle: Seattle
Detroit @ Indianapolis: Indianapolis
New York @ Dallas: New York Giants
New England @ Arizona: Arizona
Pittsburgh @ Washington : Pittsburgh
Los Angeles @ San Francisco: Los Angeles. It’s really weird typing Los Angeles in reference to an NFL team